Our side
MoneylineSUU to win
ours 73%
Projected score
24–34
UNCO – SUU
2026-11-07 · 3:00 PM
Eccles Coliseum · Cedar City, UT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Utah and Northern Colorado split 8 (4–4)
· 8 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
37 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #216 rush offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
73 ranks
Northern Colorado Bears #196 pass offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
157 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense
Northern Colorado Bears #194 run defense
Pass game
even
35 ranks apart
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense
Northern Colorado Bears #102 pass defense
Northern Colorado Bears
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Run-heavy · 59% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Colorado Bears
DB
Franky Morales
18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#91 DB
DL
Dominic Butts
10 tkl · 4.0 TFL
#122 DL
DL
Blake Weslin
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#192 DL
DL
Ezra Ekuban
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#226 DL
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB
Parker Vance
18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
#4 DB
TE
Joshua Acord
11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD
#3 TE
RB
Floyd Chalk
427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec
#6 RB
DL
Myles Amey
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#103 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Colorado offense vs Southern Utah defense-1.4 pts
Southern Utah offense vs Northern Colorado defense+6.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 487 mi
Altitude · context only307 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.