← Matchups

UC Davis

· 2-1 (1-0) · power +7.3 · #100

Our numberUCD -17.9 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Portland State

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -12.8 · #326

Final UCD 31 · PRST 24 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineUCD to win logged ours 16%

Our number: UCD by 12.5 — UCD to win.

Projected score 40–22 UCD – PRST

2026-08-29 · 3:00 PM Hillsboro Stadium · Portland, OR Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UC Davis lead 7–6 · 13 meetings since 2004

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge UC Davis Aggies ~~220 ranks~~

UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense Portland State Vikings #262 run defense

Pass game edge UC Davis Aggies ~~209 ranks~~

UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense Portland State Vikings #250 pass defense

Run game even ~~16 ranks apart~~

Portland State Vikings #258 rush offense UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense

Pass game edge UC Davis Aggies ~~112 ranks~~

Portland State Vikings #224 pass offense UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense

UC Davis Aggies Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg Portland State Vikings Balanced · 56% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

UC Davis Aggies

WR Samuel Gbatu Jr. 22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD #18 WR

DL Jaden Few 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #85 DL

RB Jordan Fisher 148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec #39 RB

DB Teeg Slone 5 tkl · 1 INT #178 DB

Portland State Vikings

DB Lono Solomon 19 tkl · 2 PD #23 DB

DB Isaac Redford 17 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #24 DB

TE Tanner Beaman 16 rec · 157 yds · 1 TD #7 TE

WR Terence Loville 15 rec · 221 yds · 1 TD #70 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
UC Davis Aggies	+7.3	+5.8	+1.4	#100
Portland State Vikings	-12.8	-2.7	-10.1	#326

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

UC Davis offense vs Portland State defense+16.0 pts

Portland State offense vs UC Davis defense-4.1 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 488 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.