← Matchups

Weber State

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -6.5 · #256
Our numberSUU -6.9 no book has priced this game

Southern Utah

· 1-2 · power -2.6 · #211
Final WEB 42 · SUU 47 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSUU to win logged ours 65%

Our number: SUU by 14.3 — SUU to win.

Projected score 31–38 WEB – SUU
2026-09-05 · 8:00 PM Eccles Coliseum · Cedar City, UT Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Weber State lead 8–6 · 14 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Weber State Wildcats 88 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds 126 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Run game edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds 210 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds 70 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Weber State Wildcats Balanced · 58% run Ball-control Southern Utah Thunderbirds Run-heavy · 59% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Weber State Wildcats
WR Noah Kjar 22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD #2 WR
LB Teni Worthen 25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #52 LB
LB Zach Smith 10 tkl #59 LB
P Henry Way 13 punts · 45.4 yd avg #13 P
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB Parker Vance 18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT #4 DB
TE Joshua Acord 11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD #3 TE
RB Floyd Chalk 427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec #6 RB
DL Myles Amey 9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL #103 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Weber State Wildcats -6.5 +3.4 -9.9 #256
Southern Utah Thunderbirds -2.6 +4.0 -6.5 #211

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Weber State offense vs Southern Utah defense+10.0 pts
Southern Utah offense vs Weber State defense+13.9 pts
Altitude · context only312 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.