Our side
MoneylineSTMN to win
ours 56%
Projected score
30–33
SUU – STMN
2026-09-19 · 2:00 PM
O'Shaughnessy Stadium · Saint Paul, MN
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Utah lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2022
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
23 ranks apart
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense
St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
174 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense
St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
Run game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
107 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
75 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Run-heavy · 59% run
Avg pace
St. Thomas Tommies
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB
Parker Vance
18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
#4 DB
TE
Joshua Acord
11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD
#3 TE
RB
Floyd Chalk
427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec
#6 RB
DL
Myles Amey
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#103 DL
St. Thomas Tommies
DB
Peyton Himley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#85 DB
LB
Malachi Boadi-Aboagye
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#60 LB
WR
Pierce McCrary
13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD
#142 WR
DL
Evan Tyler
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#282 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern Utah offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense+7.0 pts
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Southern Utah defense+7.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,148 mi
Altitude · context only1,530 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.