Our side
MoneylineUCD to win
ours 32%
Projected score
36–28
UCD – SUU
2026-10-17 · 8:00 PM
Eccles Coliseum · Cedar City, UT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Utah and UC Davis split 14 (7–7)
· 14 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UC Davis Aggies
211 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game
edge UC Davis Aggies
82 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
205 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense
UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
45 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense
UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense
UC Davis Aggies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Run-heavy · 59% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UC Davis Aggies
WR
Samuel Gbatu Jr.
22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD
#18 WR
DL
Jaden Few
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#85 DL
RB
Jordan Fisher
148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
#39 RB
DB
Teeg Slone
5 tkl · 1 INT
#178 DB
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB
Parker Vance
18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
#4 DB
TE
Joshua Acord
11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD
#3 TE
RB
Floyd Chalk
427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec
#6 RB
DL
Myles Amey
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#103 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UC Davis offense vs Southern Utah defense+12.4 pts
Southern Utah offense vs UC Davis defense+2.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment-7.3
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 476 mi
Altitude · context only1,751 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.