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Stetson

· 1-2 · power -21.2 · #383
Our numberUCD -32.2 no book has priced this game

UC Davis

· 2-1 (1-0) · power +7.3 · #100
Our side
MoneylineUCD to win ours 96%
Projected score 14–47 STET – UCD
2026-09-19 · 10:00 PM UC Davis Health Stadium · Davis, CA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 4 ranks apart
Stetson Hatters #238 rush offense UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense
Pass game edge UC Davis Aggies 144 ranks
Stetson Hatters #256 pass offense UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense
Run game edge UC Davis Aggies 201 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense Stetson Hatters #243 run defense
Pass game edge UC Davis Aggies 191 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense Stetson Hatters #232 pass defense
Stetson Hatters Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control UC Davis Aggies Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Stetson Hatters
DB Dylan Kelly 15 tkl · 1 PD #227 DB
DL Alex Yearwood 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #344 DL
DB Johnny DeLancy 6 tkl · 1 PD #363 DB
WR Landon Farco 5 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #339 WR
UC Davis Aggies
WR Samuel Gbatu Jr. 22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD #18 WR
DL Jaden Few 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #85 DL
RB Jordan Fisher 148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec #39 RB
DB Teeg Slone 5 tkl · 1 INT #178 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Stetson Hatters -21.2 -8.1 -13.0 #383
UC Davis Aggies +7.3 +5.8 +1.4 #100

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Stetson offense vs UC Davis defense-9.6 pts
UC Davis offense vs Stetson defense+18.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,394 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.