Our side
MoneylineUCD to win
ours 21%
Projected score
39–26
UCD – WEB
2026-10-31 · 3:00 PM
Stewart Stadium · Ogden, UT
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Weber State lead
7–4
· 11 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UC Davis Aggies
205 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #42 rush offense
Weber State Wildcats #247 run defense
Pass game
edge UC Davis Aggies
96 ranks
UC Davis Aggies #41 pass offense
Weber State Wildcats #137 pass defense
Run game
edge Weber State Wildcats
77 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #165 rush offense
UC Davis Aggies #242 run defense
Pass game
edge UC Davis Aggies
137 ranks
Weber State Wildcats #249 pass offense
UC Davis Aggies #112 pass defense
UC Davis Aggies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 37 rush ypg
Weber State Wildcats
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UC Davis Aggies
WR
Samuel Gbatu Jr.
22 rec · 296 yds · 3 TD
#18 WR
DL
Jaden Few
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#85 DL
RB
Jordan Fisher
148 rush yds · 3 TD · 9 rec
#39 RB
DB
Teeg Slone
5 tkl · 1 INT
#178 DB
Weber State Wildcats
WR
Noah Kjar
22 rec · 385 yds · 6 TD
#2 WR
LB
Teni Worthen
25 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#52 LB
LB
Zach Smith
10 tkl
#59 LB
P
Henry Way
13 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#13 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UC Davis offense vs Weber State defense+15.7 pts
Weber State offense vs UC Davis defense+2.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 552 mi
Altitude · context only1,439 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.