Our side
MoneylineCHSO to win
ours 35%
Projected score
23–17
CHSO – TNST
2026-10-24 · 3:30 PM
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Charleston Southern lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
99 ranks
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #210 rush offense
Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
65 ranks
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #157 pass offense
Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Run game
edge Charleston Southern Buccaneers
194 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #71 run defense
Pass game
edge Charleston Southern Buccaneers
51 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #204 pass defense
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
Balanced · 57% run
Ball-control
Tennessee State Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
LB
Tristan Lennon
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#58 LB
LB
Steve Zayachkowsky
22 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#80 LB
DL
Josiah Wyatt
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#212 DL
DL
CJ Landrum
13 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#521 DL
Tennessee State Tigers
DB
Brendan Hale
21 tkl · 2 PD
#93 DB
DL
Bryce Gray
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#244 DL
WR
Jayden Guy
15 rec · 202 yds
#212 WR
P
Truette Tumey
15 punts · 43.7 yd avg
#32 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Charleston Southern offense vs Tennessee State defense-11.6 pts
Tennessee State offense vs Charleston Southern defense-19.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 440 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.