← Matchups

Western Illinois

· 1-2 · power -9.9 · #294
Our numberWIU -0.8 no book has priced this game

Charleston Southern

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -11.7 · #316
Our side
MoneylineWIU to win ours 48%
Projected score 26–25 WIU – CHSO
2026-10-31 · 2:00 PM Buccaneer Field · Charleston, SC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Charleston Southern and Western Illinois split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Charleston Southern Buccaneers 111 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense Charleston Southern Buccaneers #71 run defense
Pass game even 36 ranks apart
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense Charleston Southern Buccaneers #204 pass defense
Run game even 5 ranks apart
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #210 rush offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game edge Charleston Southern Buccaneers 45 ranks
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #157 pass offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Western Illinois Leathernecks Balanced · 46% run Ball-control Charleston Southern Buccaneers Balanced · 57% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB Nick Reinicke 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #57 LB
DB Aa'zoriyon Bonner 9 tkl · 1 PD #170 DB
DB Jouvenson Romulus 9 tkl · 1 INT #376 DB
DB Brayden Hapner 8 tkl · 2 PD #458 DB
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
LB Tristan Lennon 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #58 LB
LB Steve Zayachkowsky 22 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #80 LB
DL Josiah Wyatt 17 tkl · 1.5 TFL #212 DL
DL CJ Landrum 13 tkl · 0.5 TFL #521 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Illinois Leathernecks -9.9 -1.1 -8.8 #294
Charleston Southern Buccaneers -11.7 -14.6 +3.0 #316

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Illinois offense vs Charleston Southern defense-4.1 pts
Charleston Southern offense vs Western Illinois defense-5.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+1.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 782 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.