← Matchups

Eastern Illinois

· 1-2 · power -14.5 · #341
Our numberSDST -26.3 no book has priced this game

South Dakota State

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #114
Our side
MoneylineSDST to win ours 93%
Projected score 17–43 EIU – SDST
2026-09-26 · 7:00 PM Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2012
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 203 ranks
Eastern Illinois Panthers #233 rush offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 154 ranks
Eastern Illinois Panthers #247 pass offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game edge Eastern Illinois Panthers 85 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense Eastern Illinois Panthers #22 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 143 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense Eastern Illinois Panthers #254 pass defense
Eastern Illinois Panthers Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control South Dakota State Jackrabbits Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Illinois Panthers
RB Charles Kellom 297 rush yds · 4 TD · 9 rec #14 RB
LB Ja'Wuan Nickson 21 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #36 LB
DL Isaac Engle 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #253 DL
DL Aidan Archibald 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #340 DL
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K Tristan Alvano 6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts #4 K
P Max Pelham 10 punts · 47.9 yd avg #3 P
TE Greyton Gannon 5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD #36 TE
WR Grahm Goering 13 rec · 254 yds #127 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Eastern Illinois Panthers -14.5 -5.9 -8.6 #341
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.6 +5.7 -0.1 #114

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Eastern Illinois offense vs South Dakota State defense-5.8 pts
South Dakota State offense vs Eastern Illinois defense+14.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+23.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 554 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.