Our side
MoneylineEIU to win
ours 41%
Projected score
27–24
EIU – TNST
2026-11-14 · 3:30 PM
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Eastern Illinois lead
12–9
· 21 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
122 ranks
Eastern Illinois Panthers #233 rush offense
Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
155 ranks
Eastern Illinois Panthers #247 pass offense
Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Run game
edge Eastern Illinois Panthers
243 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense
Eastern Illinois Panthers #22 run defense
Pass game
even
1 ranks apart
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense
Eastern Illinois Panthers #254 pass defense
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Run-heavy · 58% run
Ball-control
Tennessee State Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Illinois Panthers
RB
Charles Kellom
297 rush yds · 4 TD · 9 rec
#14 RB
LB
Ja'Wuan Nickson
21 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#36 LB
DL
Isaac Engle
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#253 DL
DL
Aidan Archibald
4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#340 DL
Tennessee State Tigers
DB
Brendan Hale
21 tkl · 2 PD
#93 DB
DL
Bryce Gray
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#244 DL
WR
Jayden Guy
15 rec · 202 yds
#212 WR
P
Truette Tumey
15 punts · 43.7 yd avg
#32 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Eastern Illinois offense vs Tennessee State defense-2.9 pts
Tennessee State offense vs Eastern Illinois defense-7.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-1.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).