Our side
MoneylineGWEB to win
ours 46%
Projected score
28–26
GWEB – SEMO
2026-10-31 · 2:00 PM
Houck Field · Cape Girardeau, MO
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Gardner-Webb and Southeast Missouri State split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
31 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #135 rush offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #104 run defense
Pass game
edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
67 ranks
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #95 pass offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #162 pass defense
Run game
edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
52 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #243 rush offense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #191 run defense
Pass game
even
42 ranks apart
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #125 pass offense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #167 pass defense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
LB
Tre Yanez
31 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#11 LB
DB
Jamarion Ravenell
14 tkl · 2 PD
#30 DB
WR
Kory Jones
18 rec · 288 yds
#58 WR
DB
Sabin McLaughlin
13 tkl · 1 PD
#133 DB
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
DB
DJ Delmore
22 tkl · 2 PD
#20 DB
DL
Timothy Maxson
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#72 DL
P
Teagan Cobb
15 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#12 P
WR
John Anthony Jr.
10 rec · 219 yds · 2 TD
#98 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Gardner-Webb offense vs Southeast Missouri State defense-0.7 pts
Southeast Missouri State offense vs Gardner-Webb defense-3.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.2
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 460 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.