← Matchups

Gardner-Webb

· 0-3 · power -4.1 · #231
Our numberGWEB -2.7 no book has priced this game

Western Illinois

· 1-2 · power -9.9 · #294
Our side
MoneylineGWEB to win ours 43%
Projected score 31–29 GWEB – WIU
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM Hanson Field · Macomb, IL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Western Illinois lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 80 ranks
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #135 rush offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 107 ranks
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #95 pass offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Run game even 9 ranks apart
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #191 run defense
Pass game edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 73 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #167 pass defense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Balanced · 58% run Avg pace Western Illinois Leathernecks Balanced · 46% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
LB Tre Yanez 31 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #11 LB
DB Jamarion Ravenell 14 tkl · 2 PD #30 DB
WR Kory Jones 18 rec · 288 yds #58 WR
DB Sabin McLaughlin 13 tkl · 1 PD #133 DB
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB Nick Reinicke 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #57 LB
DB Aa'zoriyon Bonner 9 tkl · 1 PD #170 DB
DB Jouvenson Romulus 9 tkl · 1 INT #376 DB
DB Brayden Hapner 8 tkl · 2 PD #458 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs -4.1 -2.2 -1.9 #231
Western Illinois Leathernecks -9.9 -1.1 -8.8 #294

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Gardner-Webb offense vs Western Illinois defense+6.6 pts
Western Illinois offense vs Gardner-Webb defense+0.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.2
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 609 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.