← Matchups

Tennessee State

· 0-3 · power -19.1 · #371
Our numberGWEB -19.0 no book has priced this game

Gardner-Webb

· 0-3 · power -4.1 · #231
Our side
MoneylineGWEB to win ours 88%
Projected score 15–34 TNST – GWEB
2026-11-21 · 1:30 PM Ernest W. Spangler Stadium · Boiling Springs, NC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Tennessee State lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 74 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #191 run defense
Pass game edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 88 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #167 pass defense
Run game even 24 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #135 rush offense Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game even 3 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #95 pass offense Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Tennessee State Tigers Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Balanced · 58% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee State Tigers
DB Brendan Hale 21 tkl · 2 PD #93 DB
DL Bryce Gray 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #244 DL
WR Jayden Guy 15 rec · 202 yds #212 WR
P Truette Tumey 15 punts · 43.7 yd avg #32 P
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
LB Tre Yanez 31 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #11 LB
DB Jamarion Ravenell 14 tkl · 2 PD #30 DB
WR Kory Jones 18 rec · 288 yds #58 WR
DB Sabin McLaughlin 13 tkl · 1 PD #133 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tennessee State Tigers -19.1 -16.0 -3.0 #371
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs -4.1 -2.2 -1.9 #231

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tennessee State offense vs Gardner-Webb defense-14.2 pts
Gardner-Webb offense vs Tennessee State defense+0.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+18.3

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).