Our side
MoneylineGWEB to win
ours 88%
Projected score
15–34
TNST – GWEB
2026-11-21 · 1:30 PM
Ernest W. Spangler Stadium · Boiling Springs, NC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tennessee State lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
74 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #191 run defense
Pass game
edge Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
88 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #167 pass defense
Run game
even
24 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #135 rush offense
Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game
even
3 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #95 pass offense
Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Tennessee State Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee State Tigers
DB
Brendan Hale
21 tkl · 2 PD
#93 DB
DL
Bryce Gray
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#244 DL
WR
Jayden Guy
15 rec · 202 yds
#212 WR
P
Truette Tumey
15 punts · 43.7 yd avg
#32 P
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
LB
Tre Yanez
31 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#11 LB
DB
Jamarion Ravenell
14 tkl · 2 PD
#30 DB
WR
Kory Jones
18 rec · 288 yds
#58 WR
DB
Sabin McLaughlin
13 tkl · 1 PD
#133 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tennessee State offense vs Gardner-Webb defense-14.2 pts
Gardner-Webb offense vs Tennessee State defense+0.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+18.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).