Our side
MoneylineWIU to win
ours 81%
Projected score
20–34
TNST – WIU
2026-10-03 · 4:00 PM
Hanson Field · Macomb, IL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tennessee State and Western Illinois split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Western Illinois Leathernecks
50 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense
Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Illinois Leathernecks
53 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense
Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Run game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
71 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense
Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
148 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense
Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Tennessee State Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee State Tigers
DB
Brendan Hale
21 tkl · 2 PD
#93 DB
DL
Bryce Gray
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#244 DL
WR
Jayden Guy
15 rec · 202 yds
#212 WR
P
Truette Tumey
15 punts · 43.7 yd avg
#32 P
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB
Nick Reinicke
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#57 LB
DB
Aa'zoriyon Bonner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#170 DB
DB
Jouvenson Romulus
9 tkl · 1 INT
#376 DB
DB
Brayden Hapner
8 tkl · 2 PD
#458 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tennessee State offense vs Western Illinois defense-7.2 pts
Western Illinois offense vs Tennessee State defense+1.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+12.4
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.