Our side
MoneylineLIN to win
ours 73%
Projected score
20–30
TNST – LIN
2026-10-31 · 2:00 PM
Hunter Stadium · Saint Charles, MO
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tennessee State lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Lindenwood Lions
95 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense
Lindenwood Lions #170 run defense
Pass game
edge Lindenwood Lions
83 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense
Lindenwood Lions #172 pass defense
Run game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
69 ranks
Lindenwood Lions #180 rush offense
Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game
even
32 ranks apart
Lindenwood Lions #60 pass offense
Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Tennessee State Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Lindenwood Lions
Run-heavy · 58% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee State Tigers
DB
Brendan Hale
21 tkl · 2 PD
#93 DB
DL
Bryce Gray
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#244 DL
WR
Jayden Guy
15 rec · 202 yds
#212 WR
P
Truette Tumey
15 punts · 43.7 yd avg
#32 P
Lindenwood Lions
DL
Mason Burke
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#152 DL
DL
King Smith
8 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#182 DL
DB
Isaac Edwards
7 tkl · 1 INT
#378 DB
DL
David Amaliri
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#451 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tennessee State offense vs Lindenwood defense-9.0 pts
Lindenwood offense vs Tennessee State defense-1.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).