← Matchups

Lindenwood

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -11.9 · #319
Our numberUTM -8.3 no book has priced this game

UT Martin

· 1-2 · power -8.1 · #278
Our side
MoneylineUTM to win ours 70%
Projected score 23–31 LIN – UTM
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM Hardy M. Graham Stadium · Martin, TN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UT Martin lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 95 ranks
Lindenwood Lions #180 rush offense UT Martin Skyhawks #85 run defense
Pass game edge Lindenwood Lions 188 ranks
Lindenwood Lions #60 pass offense UT Martin Skyhawks #248 pass defense
Run game even 29 ranks apart
UT Martin Skyhawks #199 rush offense Lindenwood Lions #170 run defense
Pass game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 64 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #108 pass offense Lindenwood Lions #172 pass defense
Lindenwood Lions Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control UT Martin Skyhawks Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Lindenwood Lions
DL Mason Burke 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #152 DL
DL King Smith 8 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #182 DL
DB Isaac Edwards 7 tkl · 1 INT #378 DB
DL David Amaliri 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #451 DL
UT Martin Skyhawks
P Max Zuluaga 8 punts · 51.4 yd avg #1 P
DB Trey Cotton 23 tkl · 1 INT #12 DB
DL Chris Wilson 14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #78 DL
DB Jamal Mayers 12 tkl · 3 PD #73 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Lindenwood Lions -11.9 -4.9 -7.1 #319
UT Martin Skyhawks -8.1 -6.7 -1.4 #278

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Lindenwood offense vs UT Martin defense-3.5 pts
UT Martin offense vs Lindenwood defense+0.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+6.8

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).