Our side
MoneylineSEMO to win
ours 59%
Projected score
27–31
WIU – SEMO
2026-10-17 · 3:00 PM
Houck Field · Cape Girardeau, MO
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southeast Missouri State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
78 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #104 run defense
Pass game
edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
78 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #162 pass defense
Run game
even
28 ranks apart
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #243 rush offense
Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game
edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
77 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #125 pass offense
Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB
Nick Reinicke
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#57 LB
DB
Aa'zoriyon Bonner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#170 DB
DB
Jouvenson Romulus
9 tkl · 1 INT
#376 DB
DB
Brayden Hapner
8 tkl · 2 PD
#458 DB
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
DB
DJ Delmore
22 tkl · 2 PD
#20 DB
DL
Timothy Maxson
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#72 DL
P
Teagan Cobb
15 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#12 P
WR
John Anthony Jr.
10 rec · 219 yds · 2 TD
#98 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Western Illinois offense vs Southeast Missouri State defense+0.4 pts
Southeast Missouri State offense vs Western Illinois defense+3.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.8
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.