← Matchups

Butler

· 2-1 · power -3.5 · #223
Our numberBUT -12.4 no book has priced this game

Valparaiso

· 1-1 · power -18.3 · #367
Our side
MoneylineBUT to win ours 25%
Projected score 36–23 BUT – VAL
2026-09-26 · 2:00 PM Brown Field · Valparaiso, IN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Butler lead 13–9 · 22 meetings since 1933
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Butler Bulldogs 48 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #139 rush offense Valparaiso Beacons #187 run defense
Pass game edge Butler Bulldogs 116 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #113 pass offense Valparaiso Beacons #229 pass defense
Run game edge Butler Bulldogs 120 ranks
Valparaiso Beacons #252 rush offense Butler Bulldogs #132 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Valparaiso Beacons #197 pass offense Butler Bulldogs #231 pass defense
Butler Bulldogs Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg Valparaiso Beacons Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Butler Bulldogs
DL Okemdi Eze 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #316 DL
WR Nick Munson 5 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #234 WR
DB Steven Stephany 8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #457 DB
RB Desmin Jackson 88 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #209 RB
Valparaiso Beacons
LB Max Samuel 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #125 LB
DB O.C. Nurse 9 tkl · 1 PD #696 DB
WR Chris Gundy 5 rec · 107 yds #454 WR
DL Gabriel Batres 4 tkl · 1.0 TFL #900 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Butler Bulldogs -3.5 -0.8 -2.7 #223
Valparaiso Beacons -18.3 -7.7 -10.6 #367

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Butler offense vs Valparaiso defense+9.8 pts
Valparaiso offense vs Butler defense-5.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.