← Matchups

San Diego

· 0-2 · power -13.8 · #334
Our numberBUT -13.5 no book has priced this game

Butler

· 2-1 · power -3.5 · #223
Our side
MoneylineBUT to win ours 80%
Projected score 23–37 USD – BUT
2026-10-10 · 1:00 PM Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl · Indianapolis, IN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series San Diego lead 14–2 · 16 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Butler Bulldogs 46 ranks
San Diego Toreros #178 rush offense Butler Bulldogs #132 run defense
Pass game edge San Diego Toreros 111 ranks
San Diego Toreros #120 pass offense Butler Bulldogs #231 pass defense
Run game edge San Diego Toreros 112 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #139 rush offense San Diego Toreros #27 run defense
Pass game edge Butler Bulldogs 98 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #113 pass offense San Diego Toreros #211 pass defense
San Diego Toreros Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Butler Bulldogs Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
San Diego Toreros
DB Dillon Kellner 6 tkl · 1 PD #347 DB
WR Cole Monach 8 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #271 WR
TE Carter Pruitt 4 rec · 50 yds #127 TE
RB Omar Mbakwe 102 rush yds · 1 TD · 1 rec #278 RB
Butler Bulldogs
DL Okemdi Eze 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #316 DL
WR Nick Munson 5 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #234 WR
DB Steven Stephany 8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #457 DB
RB Desmin Jackson 88 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #209 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
San Diego Toreros -13.8 -4.3 -9.6 #334
Butler Bulldogs -3.5 -0.8 -2.7 #223

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
San Diego offense vs Butler defense-1.6 pts
Butler offense vs San Diego defense+8.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,785 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.