Our side
MoneylineBUT to win
ours 52%
Projected score
27–27
DAY – BUT
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM
Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl · Indianapolis, IN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Dayton lead
13–8
· 21 meetings since 1932
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Butler Bulldogs
59 ranks
Dayton Flyers #191 rush offense
Butler Bulldogs #132 run defense
Pass game
edge Dayton Flyers
217 ranks
Dayton Flyers #14 pass offense
Butler Bulldogs #231 pass defense
Run game
edge Dayton Flyers
126 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #139 rush offense
Dayton Flyers #13 run defense
Pass game
even
41 ranks apart
Butler Bulldogs #113 pass offense
Dayton Flyers #72 pass defense
Dayton Flyers
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Butler Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Dayton Flyers
TE
Donovan Weatherly
8 rec · 110 yds · 2 TD
#19 TE
DB
Javawn Brooks
7 tkl · 3 INT
#210 DB
DL
Jace Schaefer
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#313 DL
DL
Griffin Suren
4 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#352 DL
Butler Bulldogs
DL
Okemdi Eze
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#316 DL
WR
Nick Munson
5 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD
#234 WR
DB
Steven Stephany
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#457 DB
RB
Desmin Jackson
88 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#209 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Dayton offense vs Butler defense-1.1 pts
Butler offense vs Dayton defense-3.0 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.