← Matchups

Butler

· 2-1 · power -3.5 · #223
Our numberBUT -7.3 no book has priced this game

Marist

· 1-2 · power -13.4 · #332
Our side
MoneylineBUT to win ours 33%
Projected score 28–21 BUT – MRST
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field · Poughkeepsie, NY Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Butler and Marist split 8 (4–4) · 8 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Marist Red Foxes 124 ranks
Butler Bulldogs #139 rush offense Marist Red Foxes #15 run defense
Pass game even 25 ranks apart
Butler Bulldogs #113 pass offense Marist Red Foxes #138 pass defense
Run game even 4 ranks apart
Marist Red Foxes #128 rush offense Butler Bulldogs #132 run defense
Pass game edge Marist Red Foxes 80 ranks
Marist Red Foxes #151 pass offense Butler Bulldogs #231 pass defense
Butler Bulldogs Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg Marist Red Foxes Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Butler Bulldogs
DL Okemdi Eze 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #316 DL
WR Nick Munson 5 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #234 WR
DB Steven Stephany 8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #457 DB
RB Desmin Jackson 88 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #209 RB
Marist Red Foxes
DB Tyrell Powell 13 tkl · 6 PD #98 DB
DL Jordan Caldwell 1 tkl #115 DL
DB Chase Hatton 15 tkl · 4 PD #106 DB
LB Kade Werner 23 tkl · 2.5 TFL #207 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Butler Bulldogs -3.5 -0.8 -2.7 #223
Marist Red Foxes -13.4 -14.3 +0.9 #332

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Butler offense vs Marist defense-1.7 pts
Marist offense vs Butler defense-11.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 652 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.