Our side
MoneylineDRKE to win
ours 39%
Projected score
32–27
DRKE – DAV
2026-09-26 · 1:00 PM
Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) · Davidson, NC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Drake lead
9–3
· 12 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Drake Bulldogs
161 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #100 rush offense
Davidson Wildcats #261 run defense
Pass game
edge Drake Bulldogs
114 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #89 pass offense
Davidson Wildcats #203 pass defense
Run game
edge Drake Bulldogs
148 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #247 rush offense
Drake Bulldogs #99 run defense
Pass game
even
2 ranks apart
Davidson Wildcats #145 pass offense
Drake Bulldogs #147 pass defense
Drake Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 69% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg
Davidson Wildcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Drake Bulldogs
LB
J.R. Flood
35 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#37 LB
DL
Tyson Shivers
10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#77 DL
WR
Willis Nofsinger
18 rec · 285 yds · 1 TD
#53 WR
WR
Hank Foley
14 rec · 215 yds · 1 TD
#120 WR
Davidson Wildcats
WR
Jacary Lightsey
24 rec · 233 yds · 1 TD
#50 WR
DL
Danzel Chukwuemeka
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#200 DL
DL
Jarmal Gilmore
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#223 DL
TE
Jack Perozek
7 rec · 62 yds · 1 TD
#51 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Drake offense vs Davidson defense+7.0 pts
Davidson offense vs Drake defense-1.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment-5.6
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 809 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.