← Matchups

Morehead State

· 1-2 · power -15.1 · #345
Our numberMORE -4.9 no book has priced this game

Davidson

· 1-2 · power -20.9 · #381
Our side
MoneylineMORE to win ours 38%
Projected score 34–29 MORE – DAV
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) · Davidson, NC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Morehead State lead 12–9 · 21 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 11 ranks apart
Morehead State Eagles #250 rush offense Davidson Wildcats #261 run defense
Pass game edge Morehead State Eagles 109 ranks
Morehead State Eagles #94 pass offense Davidson Wildcats #203 pass defense
Run game even 16 ranks apart
Davidson Wildcats #247 rush offense Morehead State Eagles #263 run defense
Pass game even 33 ranks apart
Davidson Wildcats #145 pass offense Morehead State Eagles #178 pass defense
Morehead State Eagles Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Davidson Wildcats Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Morehead State Eagles
DB Tazion McQueen 10 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #96 DB
DB Sidney Webb 4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #125 DB
DB Isaiah Watts 3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #148 DB
WR Cross Watson 4 rec · 132 yds · 3 TD #207 WR
Davidson Wildcats
WR Jacary Lightsey 24 rec · 233 yds · 1 TD #50 WR
DL Danzel Chukwuemeka 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #200 DL
DL Jarmal Gilmore 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #223 DL
TE Jack Perozek 7 rec · 62 yds · 1 TD #51 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Morehead State Eagles -15.1 -2.7 -12.4 #345
Davidson Wildcats -20.9 -8.4 -12.5 #381

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Morehead State offense vs Davidson defense+9.8 pts
Davidson offense vs Morehead State defense+4.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.3

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).