Our side
MoneylineMORE to win
ours 38%
Projected score
34–29
MORE – DAV
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM
Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) · Davidson, NC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Morehead State lead
12–9
· 21 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
11 ranks apart
Morehead State Eagles #250 rush offense
Davidson Wildcats #261 run defense
Pass game
edge Morehead State Eagles
109 ranks
Morehead State Eagles #94 pass offense
Davidson Wildcats #203 pass defense
Run game
even
16 ranks apart
Davidson Wildcats #247 rush offense
Morehead State Eagles #263 run defense
Pass game
even
33 ranks apart
Davidson Wildcats #145 pass offense
Morehead State Eagles #178 pass defense
Morehead State Eagles
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Davidson Wildcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Morehead State Eagles
DB
Tazion McQueen
10 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#96 DB
DB
Sidney Webb
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#125 DB
DB
Isaiah Watts
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#148 DB
WR
Cross Watson
4 rec · 132 yds · 3 TD
#207 WR
Davidson Wildcats
WR
Jacary Lightsey
24 rec · 233 yds · 1 TD
#50 WR
DL
Danzel Chukwuemeka
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#200 DL
DL
Jarmal Gilmore
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#223 DL
TE
Jack Perozek
7 rec · 62 yds · 1 TD
#51 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Morehead State offense vs Davidson defense+9.8 pts
Davidson offense vs Morehead State defense+4.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).