Our side
MoneylineDAY to win
ours 85%
Projected score
21–37
MORE – DAY
2026-10-10 · 12:00 PM
Welcome Stadium · Dayton, OH
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Dayton lead
12–7
· 19 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Dayton Flyers
237 ranks
Morehead State Eagles #250 rush offense
Dayton Flyers #13 run defense
Pass game
even
22 ranks apart
Morehead State Eagles #94 pass offense
Dayton Flyers #72 pass defense
Run game
edge Dayton Flyers
72 ranks
Dayton Flyers #191 rush offense
Morehead State Eagles #263 run defense
Pass game
edge Dayton Flyers
164 ranks
Dayton Flyers #14 pass offense
Morehead State Eagles #178 pass defense
Morehead State Eagles
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dayton Flyers
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Morehead State Eagles
DB
Tazion McQueen
10 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#96 DB
DB
Sidney Webb
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#125 DB
DB
Isaiah Watts
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#148 DB
WR
Cross Watson
4 rec · 132 yds · 3 TD
#207 WR
Dayton Flyers
TE
Donovan Weatherly
8 rec · 110 yds · 2 TD
#19 TE
DB
Javawn Brooks
7 tkl · 3 INT
#210 DB
DL
Jace Schaefer
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#313 DL
DL
Griffin Suren
4 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#352 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Morehead State offense vs Dayton defense-4.9 pts
Dayton offense vs Morehead State defense+8.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.