Our side
MoneylineTAR to win
ours 6%
Projected score
40–15
TAR – WGA
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM
University Stadium (GA) · Carrollton, GA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tarleton State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge West Georgia Wolves
61 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #64 rush offense
West Georgia Wolves #3 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
96 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #11 pass offense
West Georgia Wolves #107 pass defense
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
West Georgia Wolves #85 rush offense
Tarleton State Texans #88 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
183 ranks
West Georgia Wolves #207 pass offense
Tarleton State Texans #24 pass defense
Tarleton State Texans
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
West Georgia Wolves
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Tarleton State Texans
RB
Tylan Hines
575 rush yds · 4 TD · 6 rec
#3 RB
WR
Marquis Willis
19 rec · 320 yds · 3 TD
#11 WR
DB
Fredd Adams
21 tkl · 5 PD
#25 DB
P
Charlie Mullen
7 punts · 44.7 yd avg
#4 P
West Georgia Wolves
DL
Dalton Epps
12 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#291 DL
LB
Chidu Bekee
19 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#164 LB
LB
Andrew Ruffin
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#174 LB
WR
T.J. Lockley
12 rec · 120 yds · 1 TD
#252 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tarleton State offense vs West Georgia defense+11.7 pts
West Georgia offense vs Tarleton State defense-12.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-22.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 765 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.