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Tarleton State

· 3-0 · power +10.1 · #82
Our numberTAR -3.4 no book has priced this game

West Florida

· 2-0 · power +4.1 · #130
Our side
MoneylineTAR to win ours 42%
Projected score 32–28 TAR – WEST
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM Pen-Air Field · Pensacola, FL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Tarleton State Texans Balanced · 53% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tarleton State Texans
RB Tylan Hines 575 rush yds · 4 TD · 6 rec #3 RB
WR Marquis Willis 19 rec · 320 yds · 3 TD #11 WR
DB Fredd Adams 21 tkl · 5 PD #25 DB
P Charlie Mullen 7 punts · 44.7 yd avg #4 P
West Florida Argonauts
DL A'Khoury Lyde 1 tkl #47 DL
DL Cameron Anderson 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #155 DL
DL Carson Ratliff 11 tkl #322 DL
DL Roderick Webb 1 tkl #392 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tarleton State Texans +10.1 +7.9 +2.2 #82
West Florida Argonauts +4.1 +2.6 +1.5 #130

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tarleton State offense vs West Florida defense+6.5 pts
West Florida offense vs Tarleton State defense+0.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 658 mi
Altitude · context only376 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.