Our side
MoneylineUT R to win
ours 83%
Projected score
20–36
SELA – UT R
2026-10-10 · 8:00 PM
Robert and Janet Vackar Stadium · Edinburg, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SE Louisiana lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
12 ranks apart
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
86 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
49 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense
SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game
even
14 ranks apart
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense
SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
SE Louisiana Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
SE Louisiana Lions
TE
Lonnie Shinn
6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD
#24 TE
DL
Amiree Alexander
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#165 DL
LB
Trace Carter
23 tkl
#104 LB
DB
Carter Byrd
20 tkl · 1 PD
#214 DB
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR
Kyran Lee
18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD
#27 WR
DB
Alijah Prosser
14 tkl · 5 PD
#68 DB
LB
Spencer Rich
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#72 LB
K
Brysen Gardner
6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts
#16 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
SE Louisiana offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense-5.9 pts
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs SE Louisiana defense+6.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+15.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 550 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.