← Matchups

UT Rio Grande Valley

· 1-2 (0-1) · power +3.0 · #138
Our numberUT R -0.2 no book has priced this game

Incarnate Word

· 1-1 · power +0.1 · #174
Our side
MoneylineUT R to win ours 49%
Projected score 30–30 UT R – UIW
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium · San Antonio, TX Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UT Rio Grande Valley lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 23 ranks apart
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense Incarnate Word Cardinals #51 run defense
Pass game edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 147 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense Incarnate Word Cardinals #169 pass defense
Run game edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 104 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #160 rush offense UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros 160 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #172 pass offense UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Incarnate Word Cardinals Balanced · 52% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR Kyran Lee 18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD #27 WR
DB Alijah Prosser 14 tkl · 5 PD #68 DB
LB Spencer Rich 27 tkl · 1.0 TFL #72 LB
K Brysen Gardner 6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts #16 K
Incarnate Word Cardinals
DL Jeremiah Young 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #28 DL
RB Lontrell Turner 153 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #60 RB
LB Christian Barney 18 tkl · 1.0 TFL #103 LB
WR Isaiah Champagne 12 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #159 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3.0 +2.4 +0.7 #138
Incarnate Word Cardinals +0.1 +3.7 -3.7 #174

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs Incarnate Word defense+6.0 pts
Incarnate Word offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense+3.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.