Our side
MoneylineUT R to win
ours 3%
Projected score
46–15
UT R – NWST
2026-11-07 · 2:00 PM
Turpin Stadium · Natchitoches, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
237 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense
Northwestern State Demons #265 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
240 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense
Northwestern State Demons #262 pass defense
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
203 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #259 rush offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
253 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #265 pass offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Northwestern State Demons
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR
Kyran Lee
18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD
#27 WR
DB
Alijah Prosser
14 tkl · 5 PD
#68 DB
LB
Spencer Rich
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#72 LB
K
Brysen Gardner
6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts
#16 K
Northwestern State Demons
DL
Geoffrey Ojeh
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#296 DL
DB
Joe Natali
14 tkl
#481 DB
LB
Danny Sears
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#370 LB
DB
Diego Sanchez
9 tkl · 1 PD
#676 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs Northwestern State defense+19.8 pts
Northwestern State offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense-10.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment-28.3
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 485 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.