← Matchups

Drake

· 0-3 · power -12.8 · #324
Our numberDRKE -2.9 no book has priced this game

Valparaiso

· 1-1 · power -18.3 · #367
Our side
MoneylineDRKE to win ours 43%
Projected score 31–28 DRKE – VAL
2026-10-10 · 2:00 PM Brown Field · Valparaiso, IN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Drake lead 20–2 · 22 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Drake Bulldogs 87 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #100 rush offense Valparaiso Beacons #187 run defense
Pass game edge Drake Bulldogs 140 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #89 pass offense Valparaiso Beacons #229 pass defense
Run game edge Drake Bulldogs 153 ranks
Valparaiso Beacons #252 rush offense Drake Bulldogs #99 run defense
Pass game edge Drake Bulldogs 50 ranks
Valparaiso Beacons #197 pass offense Drake Bulldogs #147 pass defense
Drake Bulldogs Run-heavy · 69% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg Valparaiso Beacons Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Drake Bulldogs
LB J.R. Flood 35 tkl · 0.5 TFL #37 LB
DL Tyson Shivers 10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #77 DL
WR Willis Nofsinger 18 rec · 285 yds · 1 TD #53 WR
WR Hank Foley 14 rec · 215 yds · 1 TD #120 WR
Valparaiso Beacons
LB Max Samuel 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #125 LB
DB O.C. Nurse 9 tkl · 1 PD #696 DB
WR Chris Gundy 5 rec · 107 yds #454 WR
DL Gabriel Batres 4 tkl · 1.0 TFL #900 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Drake Bulldogs -12.8 -5.6 -7.2 #324
Valparaiso Beacons -18.3 -7.7 -10.6 #367

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Drake offense vs Valparaiso defense+5.0 pts
Valparaiso offense vs Drake defense-0.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.