Our side
MoneylineSTMN to win
ours 83%
Projected score
22–37
DRKE – STMN
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM
O'Shaughnessy Stadium · Saint Paul, MN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
St. Thomas (MN) lead
3–2
· 5 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
86 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #100 rush offense
St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game
edge Drake Bulldogs
152 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #89 pass offense
St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
Run game
edge Drake Bulldogs
47 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense
Drake Bulldogs #99 run defense
Pass game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
99 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense
Drake Bulldogs #147 pass defense
Drake Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 69% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg
St. Thomas Tommies
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Drake Bulldogs
LB
J.R. Flood
35 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#37 LB
DL
Tyson Shivers
10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#77 DL
WR
Willis Nofsinger
18 rec · 285 yds · 1 TD
#53 WR
WR
Hank Foley
14 rec · 215 yds · 1 TD
#120 WR
St. Thomas Tommies
DB
Peyton Himley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#85 DB
LB
Malachi Boadi-Aboagye
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#60 LB
WR
Pierce McCrary
13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD
#142 WR
DL
Evan Tyler
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#282 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Drake offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-2.6 pts
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Drake defense+8.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+14.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).