← Matchups

Marist

· 1-2 · power -13.4 · #332
Our numberMRST -5.2 no book has priced this game

Stetson

· 1-2 · power -21.2 · #383
Our side
MoneylineMRST to win ours 37%
Projected score 28–23 MRST – STET
2026-10-03 · 1:00 PM Spec Martin Memorial Stadium · DeLand, FL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Marist lead 10–2 · 12 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Marist Red Foxes 115 ranks
Marist Red Foxes #128 rush offense Stetson Hatters #243 run defense
Pass game edge Marist Red Foxes 81 ranks
Marist Red Foxes #151 pass offense Stetson Hatters #232 pass defense
Run game edge Marist Red Foxes 223 ranks
Stetson Hatters #238 rush offense Marist Red Foxes #15 run defense
Pass game edge Marist Red Foxes 118 ranks
Stetson Hatters #256 pass offense Marist Red Foxes #138 pass defense
Marist Red Foxes Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg Stetson Hatters Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Marist Red Foxes
DB Tyrell Powell 13 tkl · 6 PD #98 DB
DL Jordan Caldwell 1 tkl #115 DL
DB Chase Hatton 15 tkl · 4 PD #106 DB
LB Kade Werner 23 tkl · 2.5 TFL #207 LB
Stetson Hatters
DB Dylan Kelly 15 tkl · 1 PD #227 DB
DL Alex Yearwood 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #344 DL
DB Johnny DeLancy 6 tkl · 1 PD #363 DB
WR Landon Farco 5 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #339 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Marist Red Foxes -13.4 -14.3 +0.9 #332
Stetson Hatters -21.2 -8.1 -13.0 #383

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Marist offense vs Stetson defense-1.2 pts
Stetson offense vs Marist defense-9.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 970 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.