← Matchups

Columbia

· power -15.4 · #349

Our numberMRST -4.9 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Marist

· 1-2 · power -13.4 · #332

Our side

MoneylineMRST to win ours 62%

Projected score 18–23 COLU – MRST

2026-10-09 · 7:00 PM Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field · Poughkeepsie, NY Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Columbia lead 7–0 · 7 meetings since 2007

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Marist Red Foxes ~~178 ranks~~

Columbia Lions #193 rush offense Marist Red Foxes #15 run defense

Pass game edge Marist Red Foxes ~~78 ranks~~

Columbia Lions #216 pass offense Marist Red Foxes #138 pass defense

Run game edge Marist Red Foxes ~~53 ranks~~

Marist Red Foxes #128 rush offense Columbia Lions #181 run defense

Pass game edge Marist Red Foxes ~~72 ranks~~

Marist Red Foxes #151 pass offense Columbia Lions #223 pass defense

Columbia Lions Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Marist Red Foxes Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Columbia Lions

No graded players for this team in 2025.

Marist Red Foxes

DB Tyrell Powell 13 tkl · 6 PD #98 DB

DL Jordan Caldwell 1 tkl #115 DL

DB Chase Hatton 15 tkl · 4 PD #106 DB

LB Kade Werner 23 tkl · 2.5 TFL #207 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Columbia Lions	-15.4	-13.8	-1.6	#349
Marist Red Foxes	-13.4	-14.3	+0.9	#332

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Columbia offense vs Marist defense-14.7 pts

Marist offense vs Columbia defense-12.7 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.