Our side
MoneylineSTMN to win
ours 29%
Projected score
30–21
STMN – MRST
2026-10-24 · 12:00 PM
Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field · Poughkeepsie, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
St. Thomas (MN) lead
5–0
· 5 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Marist Red Foxes
131 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense
Marist Red Foxes #15 run defense
Pass game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
90 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense
Marist Red Foxes #138 pass defense
Run game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
114 ranks
Marist Red Foxes #128 rush offense
St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game
edge Marist Red Foxes
90 ranks
Marist Red Foxes #151 pass offense
St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
St. Thomas Tommies
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Marist Red Foxes
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
St. Thomas Tommies
DB
Peyton Himley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#85 DB
LB
Malachi Boadi-Aboagye
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#60 LB
WR
Pierce McCrary
13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD
#142 WR
DL
Evan Tyler
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#282 DL
Marist Red Foxes
DB
Tyrell Powell
13 tkl · 6 PD
#98 DB
DL
Jordan Caldwell
1 tkl
#115 DL
DB
Chase Hatton
15 tkl · 4 PD
#106 DB
LB
Kade Werner
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#207 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Marist defense+0.2 pts
Marist offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-11.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.9
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 986 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.