← Matchups

Winona State

· 0-1 · power -2.4 · #207

Our numberSTMN -3.2 ~~no book has priced this game~~

St. Thomas-Minnesota

· 2-1 · power -2.0 · #198

Final WINO 9 · STMN 15 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineSTMN to win logged ours 57%

Our number: STMN by 3.3 — STMN to win.

Projected score 24–28 WINO – STMN

2026-08-27 · 7:00 PM O'Shaughnessy Stadium · Saint Paul, MN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

St. Thomas Tommies Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Winona State Warriors

No graded players for this team in 2025.

St. Thomas Tommies

DB Peyton Himley 14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #85 DB

LB Malachi Boadi-Aboagye 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #60 LB

WR Pierce McCrary 13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD #142 WR

DL Evan Tyler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #282 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Winona State Warriors	-2.4	-7.1	+4.7	#207
St. Thomas Tommies	-2.0	+1.0	-3.0	#198

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Winona State offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-4.1 pts

St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Winona State defense-3.7 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.