← Matchups

San Diego

· 0-2 · power -13.8 · #334
Our numberSTMN -15.1 no book has priced this game

St. Thomas-Minnesota

· 2-1 · power -2.0 · #198
Our side
MoneylineSTMN to win ours 80%
Projected score 23–38 USD – STMN
2026-09-26 · 2:00 PM O'Shaughnessy Stadium · Saint Paul, MN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series St. Thomas (MN) lead 3–2 · 5 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge St. Thomas Tommies 164 ranks
San Diego Toreros #178 rush offense St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game edge San Diego Toreros 121 ranks
San Diego Toreros #120 pass offense St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
Run game edge San Diego Toreros 119 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense San Diego Toreros #27 run defense
Pass game edge St. Thomas Tommies 163 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense San Diego Toreros #211 pass defense
San Diego Toreros Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace St. Thomas Tommies Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
San Diego Toreros
DB Dillon Kellner 6 tkl · 1 PD #347 DB
WR Cole Monach 8 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #271 WR
TE Carter Pruitt 4 rec · 50 yds #127 TE
RB Omar Mbakwe 102 rush yds · 1 TD · 1 rec #278 RB
St. Thomas Tommies
DB Peyton Himley 14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #85 DB
LB Malachi Boadi-Aboagye 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #60 LB
WR Pierce McCrary 13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD #142 WR
DL Evan Tyler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #282 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
San Diego Toreros -13.8 -4.3 -9.6 #334
St. Thomas Tommies -2.0 +1.0 -3.0 #198

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
San Diego offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-1.3 pts
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs San Diego defense+10.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,536 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.