← Matchups

Stetson

· 1-2 · power -21.2 · #383

Our numberSTMN -22.7 ~~no book has priced this game~~

St. Thomas-Minnesota

· 2-1 · power -2.0 · #198

Our side

MoneylineSTMN to win ours 92%

Projected score 19–42 STET – STMN

2026-10-10 · 2:00 PM O'Shaughnessy Stadium · Saint Paul, MN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series St. Thomas (MN) lead 5–0 · 5 meetings since 2021

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge St. Thomas Tommies ~~224 ranks~~

Stetson Hatters #238 rush offense St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense

Pass game even ~~15 ranks apart~~

Stetson Hatters #256 pass offense St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense

Run game edge St. Thomas Tommies ~~97 ranks~~

St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense Stetson Hatters #243 run defense

Pass game edge St. Thomas Tommies ~~184 ranks~~

St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense Stetson Hatters #232 pass defense

Stetson Hatters Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control St. Thomas Tommies Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Stetson Hatters

DB Dylan Kelly 15 tkl · 1 PD #227 DB

DL Alex Yearwood 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #344 DL

DB Johnny DeLancy 6 tkl · 1 PD #363 DB

WR Landon Farco 5 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #339 WR

St. Thomas Tommies

DB Peyton Himley 14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #85 DB

LB Malachi Boadi-Aboagye 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #60 LB

WR Pierce McCrary 13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD #142 WR

DL Evan Tyler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #282 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Stetson Hatters	-21.2	-8.1	-13.0	#383
St. Thomas Tommies	-2.0	+1.0	-3.0	#198

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Stetson offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-5.1 pts

St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Stetson defense+14.0 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,276 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.