Our side
MoneylineSTMN to win
ours 19%
Projected score
37–23
STMN – VAL
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM
Brown Field · Valparaiso, IN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
St. Thomas (MN) lead
5–0
· 5 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
41 ranks apart
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense
Valparaiso Beacons #187 run defense
Pass game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
181 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense
Valparaiso Beacons #229 pass defense
Run game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
238 ranks
Valparaiso Beacons #252 rush offense
St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Valparaiso Beacons #197 pass offense
St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
St. Thomas Tommies
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Valparaiso Beacons
Run-heavy · 58% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
St. Thomas Tommies
DB
Peyton Himley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#85 DB
LB
Malachi Boadi-Aboagye
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#60 LB
WR
Pierce McCrary
13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD
#142 WR
DL
Evan Tyler
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#282 DL
Valparaiso Beacons
LB
Max Samuel
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#125 LB
DB
O.C. Nurse
9 tkl · 1 PD
#696 DB
WR
Chris Gundy
5 rec · 107 yds
#454 WR
DL
Gabriel Batres
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#900 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Valparaiso defense+11.6 pts
Valparaiso offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-4.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.