← Matchups

Valparaiso

· 1-1 · power -18.3 · #367
Our numberUSD -7.5 no book has priced this game

San Diego

· 0-2 · power -13.8 · #334
Our side
MoneylineUSD to win ours 68%
Projected score 26–34 VAL – USD
2026-10-17 · 4:00 PM Torero Stadium · San Diego, CA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series San Diego lead 15–2 · 17 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge San Diego Toreros 225 ranks
Valparaiso Beacons #252 rush offense San Diego Toreros #27 run defense
Pass game even 14 ranks apart
Valparaiso Beacons #197 pass offense San Diego Toreros #211 pass defense
Run game even 9 ranks apart
San Diego Toreros #178 rush offense Valparaiso Beacons #187 run defense
Pass game edge San Diego Toreros 109 ranks
San Diego Toreros #120 pass offense Valparaiso Beacons #229 pass defense
Valparaiso Beacons Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control San Diego Toreros Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Valparaiso Beacons
LB Max Samuel 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #125 LB
DB O.C. Nurse 9 tkl · 1 PD #696 DB
WR Chris Gundy 5 rec · 107 yds #454 WR
DL Gabriel Batres 4 tkl · 1.0 TFL #900 DL
San Diego Toreros
DB Dillon Kellner 6 tkl · 1 PD #347 DB
WR Cole Monach 8 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #271 WR
TE Carter Pruitt 4 rec · 50 yds #127 TE
RB Omar Mbakwe 102 rush yds · 1 TD · 1 rec #278 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Valparaiso Beacons -18.3 -7.7 -10.6 #367
San Diego Toreros -13.8 -4.3 -9.6 #334

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Valparaiso offense vs San Diego defense+1.9 pts
San Diego offense vs Valparaiso defense+6.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,755 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.