Our side
MoneylineUT R to win
ours 14%
Projected score
37–20
UT R – HCU
2026-11-21 · 5:00 PM
Husky Stadium (TX) · Houston, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UT Rio Grande Valley lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
144 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense
Houston Christian Huskies #172 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
66 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense
Houston Christian Huskies #88 pass defense
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
146 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #202 rush offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
249 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #261 pass offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Houston Christian Huskies
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR
Kyran Lee
18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD
#27 WR
DB
Alijah Prosser
14 tkl · 5 PD
#68 DB
LB
Spencer Rich
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#72 LB
K
Brysen Gardner
6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts
#16 K
Houston Christian Huskies
LB
Jayven Anderson
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 7.0 TFL
#25 LB
P
Julian Maceri
5 punts · 45.2 yd avg
#9 P
DL
Calvin Kalu-Alexander
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#351 DL
DB
Darius Bean
17 tkl · 1 PD
#341 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs Houston Christian defense+10.6 pts
Houston Christian offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense-8.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-17.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).