Our side
MoneylineALST to win
ours 32%
Projected score
32–24
ALST – AAMU
2026-10-31 · 3:30 PM
Legion Field (AL) · Birmingham, AL · neutral
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Alabama A&M lead
10–9
· 19 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Alabama State Hornets
125 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #5 rush offense
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #130 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
260 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #1 pass offense
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #261 pass defense
Run game
even
27 ranks apart
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #219 rush offense
Alabama State Hornets #246 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
130 ranks
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #176 pass offense
Alabama State Hornets #46 pass defense
Alabama State Hornets
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alabama State Hornets
RB
Jamarie Hostzclaw
169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#111 RB
DB
Ta'Shaun Sims
15 tkl · 1 PD
#301 DB
DB
Zion Crawford
8 tkl · 3 PD
#406 DB
DL
Jaylan Jarrett
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#542 DL
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
DB
Jeremiah Hudson-Davis
35 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#10 DB
DL
Kylon Roberts
17 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#54 DL
WR
Jarel Williams
16 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD
#47 WR
DL
Arenza Davis
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#113 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alabama State offense vs Alabama A&M defense+5.4 pts
Alabama A&M offense vs Alabama State defense-2.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).