Our side
MoneylineAAMU to win
ours 69%
Projected score
26–34
TXSO – AAMU
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM
Louis Crews Stadium · Huntsville, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Alabama A&M lead
10–4
· 14 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
33 ranks apart
Texas Southern Tigers #97 rush offense
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #130 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
57 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #204 pass offense
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #261 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
103 ranks
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #219 rush offense
Texas Southern Tigers #116 run defense
Pass game
even
28 ranks apart
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #176 pass offense
Texas Southern Tigers #148 pass defense
Texas Southern Tigers
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Texas Southern Tigers
LB
Donovan Jones
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#76 LB
DL
Jordan Thompson
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#143 DL
RB
Athean Renfro Jr.
293 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#63 RB
DL
Thurman Rayborn
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#176 DL
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
DB
Jeremiah Hudson-Davis
35 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#10 DB
DL
Kylon Roberts
17 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#54 DL
WR
Jarel Williams
16 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD
#47 WR
DL
Arenza Davis
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#113 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Texas Southern offense vs Alabama A&M defense+2.2 pts
Alabama A&M offense vs Texas Southern defense+5.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+6.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 619 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.