← Matchups

Northeastern State

· power -13.2 · #331

Our numberSFA -29.6 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Stephen F. Austin

· 3-0 (2-0) · power +12.7 · #71

Our side

MoneylineSFA to win ours 95%

Projected score 14–43 NORT – SFA

2026-09-26 · 6:00 PM Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, TX Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Balanced · 49% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Northeastern State RiverHawks

No graded players for this team in 2025.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

DB Makai Frisby 8 tkl · 3 INT #48 DB

K Carlos Alvarado 6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts #9 K

DB Jaiydyn Johnson 13 tkl · 3 PD #66 DB

WR Bugs Mortimer 8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD #84 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Northeastern State RiverHawks	-13.2	-5.1	-8.1	#331
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks	+12.7	+6.0	+6.7	#71

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Northeastern State offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-11.8 pts

Stephen F. Austin offense vs Northeastern State defense+14.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.