Our side
MoneylineSFA to win
ours 98%
Projected score
12–44
HCU – SFA
2026-10-31 · 3:00 PM
Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
6–1
· 7 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
194 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #202 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
233 ranks
Houston Christian Huskies #261 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
133 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
Houston Christian Huskies #172 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
Houston Christian Huskies #88 pass defense
Houston Christian Huskies
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Houston Christian Huskies
LB
Jayven Anderson
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 7.0 TFL
#25 LB
P
Julian Maceri
5 punts · 45.2 yd avg
#9 P
DL
Calvin Kalu-Alexander
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#351 DL
DB
Darius Bean
17 tkl · 1 PD
#341 DB
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Houston Christian offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-14.6 pts
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Houston Christian defense+14.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+32.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).