Our side
MoneylineSFA to win
ours 20%
Projected score
31–17
SFA – LAM
2026-11-07 · 4:00 PM
Provost Umphrey Stadium · Beaumont, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
9–4
· 13 meetings since 1978
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense
Pass game
even
32 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
220 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
197 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Lamar Cardinals
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Lamar Cardinals
DB
Mar Mar Evans
16 tkl · 4 PD
#54 DB
TE
Davin Driskell
10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD
#12 TE
DB
Lanar Kelley
11 tkl · 1 INT
#86 DB
DB
Bryce McDonald
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#146 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Lamar defense-0.0 pts
Lamar offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-14.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-12.5
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).