BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

SE Louisiana

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -9.2 · #287
Our numberUSA -27.5 no book has priced this game

South Alabama

SBC · 1-1 · power +7.5 · #96
Final SELA 14 · USA 39 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUSA to win logged ours 94%

Our number: USA by 19.9 — USA to win.

Projected score 15–42 SELA – USA
2026-09-05 · 7:00 PM Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book SELA spreadUSA spread OverUnder SELA winUSA win SELA TT overSELA TT under USA TT overUSA TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 8 days ago spread USA 75% bets · 83% money total Over 76% bets · 72% money ML USA 99% bets · 99% money
Series South Alabama lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge SE Louisiana Lions 172 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense South Alabama Jaguars #216 run defense
Pass game edge SE Louisiana Lions 118 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense South Alabama Jaguars #216 pass defense
Run game even 15 ranks apart
South Alabama Jaguars #92 rush offense SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game edge SE Louisiana Lions 119 ranks
South Alabama Jaguars #127 pass offense SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
SE Louisiana Lions Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control South Alabama Jaguars Run-heavy · 64% run Avg pace
Major Applewhite · 26-25 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
SE Louisiana Lions
TE Lonnie Shinn 6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #24 TE
DL Amiree Alexander 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #165 DL
LB Trace Carter 23 tkl #104 LB
DB Carter Byrd 20 tkl · 1 PD #214 DB
South Alabama Jaguars
WR Brendan Jenkins 14 rec · 197 yds · 2 TD #25 WR
RB PJ Martin 142 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec #59 RB
QB Bishop Davenport 450 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT #34 QB
K Davis Little 4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts #39 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
SE Louisiana Lions -9.2 -5.2 -4.0 #287
South Alabama JaguarsSBC +7.5 +5.6 +1.9 #96

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
SE Louisiana offense vs South Alabama defense-7.2 pts
South Alabama offense vs SE Louisiana defense+9.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.