← Matchups

Lamar

· 2-1 · power -2.1 · #202
Our numberLAM -5.9 no book has priced this game

SE Louisiana

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -9.2 · #287
Our side
MoneylineLAM to win ours 36%
Projected score 27–21 LAM – SELA
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM Strawberry Stadium · Hammond, LA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series SE Louisiana lead 10–4 · 14 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge SE Louisiana Lions 151 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game edge SE Louisiana Lions 217 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
Run game even 7 ranks apart
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense
Pass game edge Lamar Cardinals 65 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense
Lamar Cardinals Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control SE Louisiana Lions Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Lamar Cardinals
DB Mar Mar Evans 16 tkl · 4 PD #54 DB
TE Davin Driskell 10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD #12 TE
DB Lanar Kelley 11 tkl · 1 INT #86 DB
DB Bryce McDonald 17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #146 DB
SE Louisiana Lions
TE Lonnie Shinn 6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #24 TE
DL Amiree Alexander 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #165 DL
LB Trace Carter 23 tkl #104 LB
DB Carter Byrd 20 tkl · 1 PD #214 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Lamar Cardinals -2.1 -8.1 +6.0 #202
SE Louisiana Lions -9.2 -5.2 -4.0 #287

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Lamar offense vs SE Louisiana defense-4.1 pts
SE Louisiana offense vs Lamar defense-11.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.5

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).