Our side
MoneylineLAM to win
ours 36%
Projected score
27–21
LAM – SELA
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
Strawberry Stadium · Hammond, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SE Louisiana lead
10–4
· 14 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
151 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #228 rush offense
SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
217 ranks
Lamar Cardinals #225 pass offense
SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
Run game
even
7 ranks apart
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense
Lamar Cardinals #37 run defense
Pass game
edge Lamar Cardinals
65 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense
Lamar Cardinals #33 pass defense
Lamar Cardinals
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
SE Louisiana Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Lamar Cardinals
DB
Mar Mar Evans
16 tkl · 4 PD
#54 DB
TE
Davin Driskell
10 rec · 99 yds · 3 TD
#12 TE
DB
Lanar Kelley
11 tkl · 1 INT
#86 DB
DB
Bryce McDonald
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#146 DB
SE Louisiana Lions
TE
Lonnie Shinn
6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD
#24 TE
DL
Amiree Alexander
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#165 DL
LB
Trace Carter
23 tkl
#104 LB
DB
Carter Byrd
20 tkl · 1 PD
#214 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Lamar offense vs SE Louisiana defense-4.1 pts
SE Louisiana offense vs Lamar defense-11.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.5
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).