Our side
MoneylineETAM to win
ours 56%
Projected score
26–29
SELA – ETAM
2026-10-31 · 4:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX) · Commerce, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SE Louisiana lead
4–1
· 5 meetings since 2009
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
152 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense
East Texas A&M Lions #196 run defense
Pass game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
130 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense
East Texas A&M Lions #228 pass defense
Run game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
89 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #166 rush offense
SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
229 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #237 pass offense
SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
SE Louisiana Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
East Texas A&M Lions
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
SE Louisiana Lions
TE
Lonnie Shinn
6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD
#24 TE
DL
Amiree Alexander
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#165 DL
LB
Trace Carter
23 tkl
#104 LB
DB
Carter Byrd
20 tkl · 1 PD
#214 DB
East Texas A&M Lions
DB
Tramar Gilbert
23 tkl · 1 PD
#39 DB
WR
Micah Simpson
17 rec · 311 yds · 2 TD
#29 WR
DL
Duncan Parham
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#86 DL
DB
Jamari Mosley
11 tkl · 2 PD
#220 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
SE Louisiana offense vs East Texas A&M defense-0.8 pts
East Texas A&M offense vs SE Louisiana defense-1.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).