Final
ALST 30 · SOU 17
ML L
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSOU to win logged
live now: ALST to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 25%
Our number: SOU by 21.8 — SOU to win.
Projected score
34–22
ALST – SOU
2026-08-29 · 3:00 PM
Legion Field (AL) · Birmingham, AL · neutral
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern lead
9–3
· 12 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Alabama State Hornets
197 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #5 rush offense
Southern Jaguars #202 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
181 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #1 pass offense
Southern Jaguars #182 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Jaguars
133 ranks
Southern Jaguars #113 rush offense
Alabama State Hornets #246 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
173 ranks
Southern Jaguars #219 pass offense
Alabama State Hornets #46 pass defense
Alabama State Hornets
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Southern Jaguars
Run-heavy · 65% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alabama State Hornets
RB
Jamarie Hostzclaw
169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#111 RB
DB
Ta'Shaun Sims
15 tkl · 1 PD
#301 DB
DB
Zion Crawford
8 tkl · 3 PD
#406 DB
DL
Jaylan Jarrett
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#542 DL
Southern Jaguars
DB
Tay James
8 tkl · 1 INT
#79 DB
DL
Ckelby Givens
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#119 DL
RB
Trey Holly
141 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#184 RB
DB
Ty Lee
9 tkl · 1 PD
#525 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alabama State offense vs Southern defense+6.3 pts
Southern offense vs Alabama State defense-5.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.